Cowboys Playoff Tracker: How win over Lions changed Cowboys’ p
Cowboys Playoff Tracker: How win over Lions changed Cowboys’ pin Deutsch in Medien und Literatur 26.02.2019 03:52
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ostseason odds Here at Blogging The Boys Color Rush Jaylon Smith Jersey , we’ve been tracking the Cowboys’ playoff chances since Week 1, even though there were some questions about why we would be talking about the playoffs after losing the season opener. The Cowboys are now 2-2, and we continue with our weekly look at the Cowboys’ playoff odds, even as folks continue to think posting Jim Mora’s “Playoffs?” rant is still somehow original 12 years after it happened.We’ll start off today’s look at the playoff odds with this convenient reference chart which shows the historic playoff odds since realignment in 2002 for every relevant W/L record.At 2-2, the historic playoff odds for the Cowboys stand at just 36%. Which looks a little strange considering that 0-0 teams and 1-1 teams have better odds than 2-2 teams. But this has a lot to do with the number of games remaining. If we consider that 11 wins gets you a sure playoff berth (in most years), then 0-0 teams need an 11-5 record - or a .688 winning percentage - to make the playoffs. But a team already at 2-2 needs to finish the season with a 9-3 record (.750 winning percentage) to get to 11-5, and that higher required winning percentage is why the odds of making the playoffs are lower for a 2-2 team than a 1-1 or 0-0 team. But the historic odds are just one way of looking at playoff odds. Here are four more:Fivethirtyeight.comIn an Elo-based calculation that takes into account scoring differential, last season’s record (to an extent), the unexpected nature of their wins and more, the site gives the Cowboys a 38% chance of making the playoffs, pretty much in line with the historic odds.Football OutsidersAnother source for playoff odds comes from our good friends at Football Outsiders. Here’s how FO see the playoff odds for winning the division, getting a bye week, or gaining a wild card berth: With a 34% chance at the playoffs for the Cowboys http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-tyrone-crawford-jersey , FO is pretty much in line with the historic odds. VegasOddshark shows that the Cowboys have improved their odds of winning the NFC East to +275 after opening the season with +333. Current Odds to win NFC East:Philadelphia Eagles -118 (opening: -180)Dallas Cowboys +275 (+333)Washington Redskins +350 (+700)New York Giants +1200 (+700)Pythagorean Win ProjectionsWe looked in detail at the Pythagorean Formula in last week’s playoff tracker and saw that it would have taken a big win against the Lions to move the projection noticeably.The Cowboys did win against the Lions, but only by two points, so the Pythagorean win projection for the Cowboys after four weeks is at a lowly 7.0 wins, and that’s certainly not enough for a playoff berth.But all of this is just a snapshot. So here’s the question the next few weeks need to answer: Are the 2018 Cowboys a playoff contender whose offense was simply off to a slow start to the season and is now finding its groove? Or are the four games so far indicative of what the 2018 Cowboys are - a middling team with an eight-win ceiling? Baker Mayfield's first NFL start came inside Oakland's notorious Black Hole.No. 2 will be against some nasty black birds.It can only get easier after this.The top overall pick in this year's draft, Mayfield faces a major challenge in his first career home start on Sunday as the Browns host the Ravens. Baltimore's ravenous, second-ranked defense has not given up a touchdown in the second half this season and made Steelers star QB Ben Roethlisberger look lost last week.Now they get a rookie to feast upon.Mayfield knows what awaits him."Baltimore has obviously been historically a great defensive franchise," he said. "They trust what they are good at, and they are going to run it. They are playing well right now. I expect them to continue to do what they are good at and also throw a couple of wrinkles in there for me."For the most part, Mayfield handled everything the Raiders threw his way a week ago in his first career start, a 45-42 loss in overtime. Showing some of the same poise and playmaking ability that made him a college star, Mayfield passed for 295 yards and two touchdowns. However, he committed four turnovers and the Browns (1-2-1) blew a 14-point lead in the second half and dropped to 2-33-1 in coach Hue Jackson's tenure.Still, Mayfield http://www.authenticsdallascowboys.com/cheap-kavon-frazier-jersey , who came off the bench on Sept. 20 against the Jets and led the Browns to their first win since 2016, handled the adversity like a seasoned pro and converted a few more doubters into believers.The Browns may have finally found their leader."I think Baker Mayfield is this generation's Brett Favre or John Elway, if you will," Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale said. "This guy knows where he wants to go with the ball, and he's very accurate, has a quick release. He's really playing well. Obviously, he's playing well because they scored 42 points last week against Oakland, and they are the Top 5 of scoring offense. So, I think he's done a nice job filling in, and it seems like they have more rhythm with him as a rookie, every play he's in there."Mayfield's about to face a defense like he's never seen. Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley knows the Ravens well. After spending six seasons with Pittsburgh going up against Baltimore's tenacious defense twice a season, Haley smiled when told about Martindale's praise of his young QB."He's carving a (Pro Football Hall of Fame) bust?" Haley said. "I will hold my stance. I am excited about a lot of the things that he is doing. This week will be a real test. We will know a lot more come Sunday evening."INSIDE INFOLooking to get an advantage on Mayfield, the Ravens watched tapes of his games at Oklahoma and grilled tight end Mark Andrews and tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Youth Travis Frederick Jersey , who were teammates with the Heisman Trophy winner."There's really not that much that those guys can tell you," coach John Harbaugh said. "You kind of talk about it, but I can't really say we've gotten any great information that way, to be honest with you. Honestly, I thought we'd get more."Asked if he watched HBO's "Hard Knocks" to learn more about the Browns, Harbaugh shook his head. Mayfield was prominently featured on the documentary series this summer."I never watch 'Hard Knocks.' Nope. Not a fan, not interested," he said, perhaps sending a message he doesn't want to be considered for the series in the future. "Couldn't care less about 'Hard Knocks,' just for the record."ROLLLING ROOKIEThe Browns aren't giving rookie Nick Chubb nearly enough touches. They know it."He has to get some," Jackson said after Chubb rushed for 105 yards on just three carries, and scored on two long runs last week. The Browns intend to increase his workload this week, mixing Chubb in with Carlos Hyde Youth Cole Beasley Jersey , who has scored five touchdowns but isn't a breakaway threat.Chubb has made the most of his 10 carries, rushing for 146 yards. According to Elias, Chubb is the first back in league history to rush for 100 yards and score two TDs on three runs.SUPER JOEIf Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco's first four games are any indication, he's going to have a fabulous season. He's thrown for 1,252 yards, eight touchdowns and just two interceptions and has quickly developed chemistry with new receivers Willie Snead, Michael Crabtree and Jon Brown.Still, with 12 games left, Flacco and Harbaugh are not looking too far ahead."Through four games, it's a quarter of the season. You could say we're on schedule, but we're never satisfied," Harbaugh said. "We have a lot of work to do."Flacco agrees."We're only four games in," he noted. "Obviously Youth Demarcus Lawrence Jersey , we like some of the stuff we're doing. We can get better at a lot of stuff, like always."TOUGH ASSIGNMENTFor Browns rookie left tackle Desmond Harrison, Sunday's matchup with Pro Bowler Terrell Suggs will be a measuring stick. Hopefully, Suggs doesn't use it on him.Harrison has sought advice from retired Browns star Joe Thomas, who had epic battles with Suggs over the years. The undrafted free agent insists he's not nervous about trying to block one of the league's best defenders."I'm just going to play my game, how I play every weekend, not going to try to do anything different, just stick to the script," he said. Custom Atlanta Falcons Jerseys
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